Cautious Optimism

Even the American media are beginning to report what those of us on the ground here in Iraq have been saying for months.

Change is definitely in the air.

The exact cause, whether the quiet will hold, and whether the Iraqi government and its citizens can maximize the opportunity the quiet presents are the questions.

These media reports mirror what I hear every day from the Iraqi staff that I work with. For many, they are cautiously optimistic that change is in fact happening, and that the current lull is actually something more. But, after nearly 5 years of indiscriminate violence, my Iraqi friends seem almost afraid to voice their hope, in fear that doing so will shatter what little hope they have for peace.

For the Americans, the question front and center at home appears to be how to parlay play any possibility of military success into political advantage in both the short term budget process (which is being used by the Democrats to try to force withdrawal) and in the upcoming 2008 elections. It's clear that for those who oppose the war, the possibility of military success is an almost untenable event. It undermines their narrative, and makes Americans ask if they, in fact, have been wrong, and have put politics above victory. Ask yourself, is it possible to imagine the leadership on the left saying "Less than a year ago, we declared the mission, the war, and the fight over. Lost. We stand before you to say that we were wrong. Our military men and women have brought to Iraq what we didn't think possible."

Won't happen.

Ever.

Instead, the rhetoric of troops as victims will continue, and they will make token acknowledgement of military progress, while saying that without political progress, it is meaningless. Of course, it is incumbent on the Iraqi government to make something out of the quiet that has been handed to them at the cost of Iraqi and American blood. But, isn't it possible to do that, and still admit to Americans what most of here can see with our own eyes?

I mean, if the American media is starting to get it...how far behind can Democrats be?

From the most recent Newsweek: Baghdad Comes Alive

"For the first time in years, the Iraqi capital is showing signs of life. But the calm is all too fragile, and it's an opportunity the government cannot afford to miss."

The author writes:

"For the first time, however, returning to Baghdad after an absence of four months, I can actually say that things do seem to have gotten better, and in ways that may even be durable. "It's hard to believe," says a friend named Fareed, who has also gone and come back over the years to find the situation always worse, "but this time it's really not." Such words are uttered only grudgingly by those such as me, who have been disappointed again and again by Iraq, where a pessimist is merely someone who has had to endure too many optimists. "

And from the New York Times: U.S. Says Attacks in Iraq Fell to Feb. 2006 Level

"The American military said Sunday that the weekly number of attacks in Iraq had fallen to the lowest level since just before the February 2006 bombing of the Shiite shrine in Samarra, an event commonly used as a benchmark for the country’s worst spasm of bloodletting after the American invasion nearly five years ago. Data released at a news conference in Baghdad showed that attacks had declined to the lowest level since January 2006. It is the third week in a row that attacks have been at this reduced level."